How to Lose a Game in 10 Plays
Why does this specific baffling ending keep recurring in these (phenomenal, btw) NBA playoffs?
No lead is safe. The increasingly routine surrender of 20-point leads is a trend that has been amplifying over recent seasons, perhaps coming to a head during this postseason, where we’ve already seen four 20-point leads blown, more than any postseason ever before.1
That’s neat, but within that context, we’ve seen three versions of the same specific type of rare NBA loss. A team imploding late, squandering a multi-possession lead in the final minute and leaving themselves trailing with no timeouts and fewer than 5 seconds left.
First there was the Bucks-Pacers series clincher, then the series opener of Nuggets-Thunder, and finally (well, perhaps finally) Game 2 of Pacers-Cavaliers.
Something is happening. NBA teams increasingly follow the math, the strategy coming from statistics more than “common sense,” which is when you make up statistics and follow them from memory. Despite this trend, three fairly forward-thinking franchises walked themselves into impossible situations, forced to inbound the ball 90 feet from the goal with fewer than 5 seconds remaining, trailing in the game.
How did we get here?
The cliff
Bucks lead 118-111, 40.0 seconds left. 99.5% win probability2
Thunder lead 115-109, 1:45 left. 93.3% win probability
Cavaliers lead 117-110, 1:06 left. 95.5% win probability
Two of these three starts with a big play for the eventual loser. Gary Trent Jr. drills his fourth three of overtime, a wild rush of an extra period, and yells at the Indiana crowd. “WHAT’S UP?”
Max Strus hit a massive three off a Donovan Mitchell assist and yells at the home Cleveland crowd. It looked the same as the Trent yell. It went the same direction. Down.
The slip
Andrew Nembhard walks into a deep, uncontested three and sinks it with 32.7 seconds left. Milwaukee has spent 3 points of its 7-point lead.
Nikola Jokic sinks a jump hook over the mismatched Alex Caruso. As the Thunder inbound, a graphic pops up revealing the Nuggets were on a 16-7 run at that point, from when the game was 95-108, and a 13-point Thunder lead is now at 4.
An after-timeout play for Tyrese Haliburton gives him an easy driving lane, to pull the Pacers within 5 again.
The key here is quick scores. The Pacers, in their two comebacks, averaged a 5-second, 2.5-point possession to answer a big three from a guy who yelled at the crowd after making it. The Jokic bucket was with 6 seconds on the shot clock, after a Murray-Jokic pick-and-roll had been snuffed out. We’ve gone from 7-6-7 margins to 4-4-5. But now our leading teams have possession.
The response
The Bucks can’t inbound, and call one of their two final timeouts.
The Thunder respond with a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fadeaway with 8 on the shot clock, which is probably right in the pocket of what they like there.
The Cavaliers can’t inbound, and call one of their two final timeouts.
Downcourt, the Bucks inbound successfully, and one trap and less than five seconds later, they have thrown the ball to Andrew Nembhard and turned it over. Just 27 seconds left and counting.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s jumper is no good. Holmgren taps the rebound and he and Aaron Gordon fall to the floor. Gordon wins possession and calls timeout.
The Cavaliers inbound successfully as well, and Donovan Mitchell is fouled by Pascal Siakam — whose reaction clearly indicates he was not intending to foul. The Cavaliers make two free throws and lead 119-112 with 57.1 seconds left, their win probability increased to 95.9%.
Trying to get a grip
In the post-turnover chaos, the Pacers get organized as time ticks away, the shot clock is at 11 seconds, the game clock is at 17.1, when the whistle blows a foul on A.J. Green defending a Haliburton layup. Haliburton scores it and heads to the free throw line for one more to draw within 1, 118-117.
After an inbound to Murray, a pass is delivered to Jokic, who contemplates. For six seconds, Jokic assesses, jabs a foot, and, just after I in my living room shout a Palpatinian “Do it!,” decides to trigger a three. The Thunder now lead by 1, 115-114, 1:06 left.
A quick, 10-second possession ends in Pascal Siakam drawing a foul on Max Strus. Siakam misses both free throws, but Aaron Nesmith flies in and tip slams the second miss to fix the error. The refs blow a whistle for basket interference, which is ref parlance for I don’t know if you’re allowed to do that. Good basket. Cavs lead 119-114, 46.7 seconds left.
A good idea
The Bucks call their second and final timeout.
The Thunder slow it up, and get a Jalen Williams drive with a head of steam to the cup, where he is met by Jokic and Gordon, he flails in an effort to draw a foul, but gets no whistle and is left with no shot. Denver’s ball, down one.
After an extensive review, the Cavs successfully inbound the ball without using a timeout. Donovan Mitchell turns around and elbows Nesmith in the face, offensive foul.
Steadying yourself
Having advanced the ball, the Bucks successfully inbound to Kevin Porter Jr., who passes over the timeline to A.J. Green. Down 1, with the shot clock off, the Pacers now have to foul.
The Thunder defend a Murray-Jokic pick and roll, getting both players to pass off the ball, and ultimately finding Russell Westbrook on the wing for a go-ahead three attempt. He misses, and the ball is rebounded by Gordon, who drives into two defenders and is blocked by Williams, and the ball caroms to the corner where it is picked up by Alex Caruso. Down 1, with the shot clock off, the Nuggets now have to foul.
Haliburton drives on Jarrett Allen and is blocked, but the ball goes out of bounds off Cleveland. The ball finds its way to Siakam, who drives and puts in a layup. Down 3 with a mere 3.5 second differential between the game clock and the shot clock, the Pacers now have to foul.
Losing your grip
Green is met with two defenders and passes to an open Gary Trent Jr., who lets the ball slip through his hands and out of bounds. The Pacers now have the ball and a chance to take the lead. Gilgeous-Alexander is fouled and makes two free throws, then the Nuggets take their final timeout, then Jokic is fouled and makes two free throws. The Thunder call the first of their two timeouts with 12.9 seconds left. Nikola Jokic is subbed out of the game.
What?
Nikola Jokic is subbed out of the game. There are 12.9 seconds left and the Nuggets cannot call timeout, only foul. Except, what happens if they don’t foul? Gilgeous-Alexander gets the ball and an open lane and takes 1.8 seconds to dunk in 2 points. Jokic is still out of the game, and there are no free throws to provide Denver the opportunity to sub him back in. Here, rather than choose to let the Nuggets attempt a full possession needing a 3 with Jokic subbed out of the game, the Thunder elect to foul immediately, giving the Nuggets free access to points in 0.4 seconds of gametime. Again, the Nuggets subbed out Jokic, and the Thunder elapsed 2.2 seconds of game time before fouling to allow him back in. Gordon makes both free throws and the Thunder take their final timeout.
Meanwhile
Unable to inbound the ball, the Cavaliers call their final timeout. Having advanced the ball, ahead by 3, Max Strus throws the ball in to Andrew Nembhard. The Pacers have the ball now and a chance to tie or pull within one. The Pacers run 15 seconds off the clock creating a drive by Haliburton that ends in a foul. The Cavaliers cannot challenge the call, which was questionable, because they are out of timeouts. Haliburton goes to the free throw-line with 12.4 seconds left.
The fall
A screen switches Giannis Antetokounmpo onto Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton drives around Antetokounmpo and lays the ball in with 1.3 seconds left. The Pacers lead.
Chet Holmgren misses a free throw, and then misses another. For a brief moment, nobody rebounds the ball. Braun appears deferential to Westbrook, but Westbrook is turning upcourt. After a tantalizing free bounce, Braun corrals the ball and passes ahead to Westbrook, who cuts across the court and finds Gordon on the wing for an open three, which goes in with 2.8 seconds left. The Nuggets lead.
Haliburton makes the first free throw to pull within 1 point, and then misses the second, and I’m inclined to believe he did this on purpose, and the ball is slapped by Myles Turner back to Haliburton. Haliburton steps back and shoots a three over Ty Jerome, which goes in with 1.1 seconds left. The Pacers lead.
The view from halfway down
Giannis Antetokounmpo saunters over toward the bench, figuring the Bucks have a timeout. They don’t. He recognizes the other players in guarding position or trying to get open. There is no plan. Antetokounmpo turns around toward the baseline, where Porter Jr. had been standing by the ball, noncommittal. Antetokounmpo relieves him. There is no hope, but Antetokounmpo takes the ball.
The Thunder are more spry, but equally screwed. Gilgeous-Alexander snatches the ball up and gets it to Williams quick. Williams takes a step before heaving the ball.
Max Strus picks up the ball while Mitchell, five feet in front of him, tries to shake Siakam along the baseline, as if that will help.
Splat
Gary Trent Jr. swoops in front of Antetokounmpo to take the inbound. He is too far away. He shoots a 75-footer and it misses everything. The Pacers win.
Williams’ heave hits high backboard from 70 feet. The Nuggets win.
Sam Merrill catches the ball about 50 feet away, he takes a dribble as time expires, he jumps and throws an overhead pass to the other half of the court. The Pacers win.
Autopsies
The three losing teams called all six of their collective timeouts to advance the ball rather than inbounding along the baseline. This is common practice, but what is the point of doing this with a lead? You don’t need to be closer to the basket to score. You play a possession game, and it actually doesn’t matter if you are closer to the other team’s basket, because they don’t have the ball. You’re just procrastinating. Putting off taking a risk.
The Pacers elected not to call a timeout after Haliburton rebounded his missed free throw against Cleveland. They were prepared to take the risk and run offense in the closing moments. The Nuggets wasted no time getting the ball upcourt, running offense on their final possession. Afterwards, Gordon said he simply thought his look was the best they’d get. Who knows if he was right, but he was ready to take the risk.
Either the Cavs or the Thunder suffered the most consequential loss; the Bucks were doomed anyway. The Cavs are down 2-0, while the Thunder have evened things at 1-1. These playoffs are insane. Keep it moving.
Per Yahoo!, I think.
Per ESPN